Market Ruminations

For once I can be a little cheerful. It was a hell of a week and my little airplane seems to be on glide path for a smooth landing. As I mentioned in my last update I placed a bet on shorting the Dow using the ETF fund DXD as my chosen vehicle. So far it is up 13.6%. My bet on the dollar going up is also in the black but only a miserly 1.37%. My bet on shorting long term treasuries is not going as well and I am underwater on the bet. I am not concerned about that one though because shorting the price of treasuries is probably the no brainer of the century. Interest rates can only go up from these levels so it is just a matter of time. Here is how I see things playing out.
THE DOW:  I think the Dow has farther to go down. The only question is will it be in a straight line or be broken by a dead cat bounce somewhere along the line. Right now I'm thinking 9500 on the Dow and 980 on the S&P before this happens. Call it 10,000 on the Dow and 1000 on the S&P before the mid point rally. At that time I am hoping to unload my short position and go long.
THE DOLLAR: I am thinking the dollar will go up till around the first of October and then top out. I hope to unload at or near the top for a small profit.
GOLD: Gold has a medium price target of 5000 and a long term price target of 10,000 an oz. Short term I see Gold going down with the stock market in a throw out the baby with the bathwater scenario. I figure when gold hits 1600 I will reach for the check book. At 1500 I will be sending checks and anything in the 1400's I'll be hocking Mary's jewelry to load up.
I think we are setting up for the trade of the century. If this thing plays out and the Dow has a nice October rally and then goes into tank the short down will be breathtaking and the ride back up will set up the family fortune for a generation. Right now we have to get through next week but so far, so good. Don't even ask me about the State Of The Union as I can't type very well through tears.