This is a very frustrating market being driven by news releases and not facts or fundamentals. Greece and Spain take turns with the good news/bad news releases driving the market up and down but at the end of the month going nowhere either up or down. I have decided to try a bet based on what I think is going on and block out the news headlines. I am pretty sure there is massive deficit spending going on. I am pretty sure the money to do this is being created out of thin air. With no increase in GDP that means all this money being created is going into the banks and the banks are buying US Treasuries rather than going out into the economy in the form of loans to build roads, bridges, factories, etc. Short term this means the banks are loading up on government bonds thereby creating the biggest bond bubble in all of history. However looking at the short term picture nothing is likely to change that and as the economy weakens the banks will buy even more bonds. Therefore I have placed a bet on bonds using an ETF fund called UBT. Following is a chart of UBT. As you can see it is substantially over the moving average line and I'm betting it will go higher.




The other bet I made is on the Gold Mining stocks. I figure with all this running of the printing presses they are diluting the value of the dollar, or at least trying to, so I figure Gold is a good bet for the time being. Here is the chart of GDX which is an ETF fund that is betting Gold Mining Stocks will go up. As you can see the price of GDX has just crossed up and over the moving average line. As usual, I'll keep you posted as to my progress.