Still waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting

This is about like watching paint to dry. We had a little excitement on the Fed's surprise move not to taper bond purchases but that was only a 48 hour blip on the charts. October is typically one of the worst months for the stock market so by the end of the month we should have a little clearer picture of where we are. I'll tell you where I THINK we are but that isn't worth very much. To start out I am pretty sure we are in a final topping period. All the discussion on the net centers around whether this is the topping of this latest Fed induced bubble or the final topping of the big 70 year supercycle. I'll give my two cents here for whatever that is worth. 
1. We are in a topping pattern of some sort. The upside from here is so small as to not be worth discussing. The upside potential is no more than 5-6% while the downside potential is 40-50%. I'll stick my neck out and make some predictions. The Dow will top in October or has already topped out. From here we start a 2 year long stair step down which will bring the Dow back down to the Feb 2009 lows of around 6600. If we have one more run up to over 16,000 I'll start placing bets on the short side. Gold is headed for 1000 or below. I am looking to short gold in the near future. Oil is also in a topping process and I'll be shorting it as well. Nothing goes up in a straight line and nothing goes down in a straight line so the next 24 months will very interesting. The model portfolio lost a couple of hundred bucks last week so I am looking to make some changes in the near future. Model Portfolio below.  I am right around a 20% gain in TBT and UCO so my thinking is to get out while I'm ahead. As usual will keep you posted.

DIG	100	60.98	62.28	-0.9100	$91.00	$130.00	2.13%	$6,228.00
DDM	100	96.41	100.12	-2.0700	$207.00	$371.00	3.85%	$10,012.00
TBT	100	65	77.45	-0.8500	$85.00	$1,245.00	19.15%	$7,745.00
UCO	100	30	36.43	-0.5800	$58.00	$643.00	21.43%	$3,643.00
Total					$441.00	$2,389.00	9.47%	$27,628.00