Have You Heard The Good News?

Those of you that know me know I have been a permabear since 1998. Back then I predicted no one make money with buy and hold for the next 15 years. So far I have been pretty much been proven right. However I am in the process of making a 12-18 month shift from bearish to bullish. The way I see things playing out the stock market has one more relatively minor correction in the next year or so. I am hoping we take out the all time highs with DDM, dump them and ride the correction down with DXD and then either late this year or early next switch to full time bullishness. I would think 2015 will be looked at as the year the next great bull market began. I would also expect no more than a 20% correction from the all time high before we are off to the races. There are a lot of good things going to happen in the next 10 years. Shale oil and gas will make us a low cost energy producer. The low cost of energy and the stability of that supply will bring back a lot of the manufacturing that went overseas. Our government will muddle through the fiscal nonsense and eventually the deleveraging process will right the listing ship and prevent it from capsizing. Shorter term I am looking for a decent rally till spring and the correction to hold off till fall. My model portfolio is a picture of good news/bad news. The proxy for the Dow is doing splendid while the proxy for Gold is wretched. Below are the charts for each and the model portfolio. DDM is getting into a potential profit taking area. Usually I like to take my 10% profit and cash in. Charts below. 

DDM 

GDX

    

DDM	100	68.64	76.45	1.45	$145.00	$781.00	11.38%
GDX	100	48.63	45.18	-0.03	$3.00	$345.00	7.09%
Total					$142.00	$436.00	3.72%