Saturday, August 17, 2013

Whither we goest?

Beats the hell out of me. Since the first of January I have been predicting a late summer/early fall swoon in the stock market which might or might not morph into the " Big One ". So far the late summer swoon seems to be starting although not enough evidence exists to make that call. This could be just a slight pullback and then one more run up to make a new all time high and then the " Big One " or this could be the dreaded " Big One ". In any event I will quit speculating and read the charts. When I start speculating and anticipating I get myself into all kinds of trouble. First I will post the new, updated Model Portfolio chart. 

GDX 100 28.7 29.79 -0.64 down $64.00 up $109.00 up 3.80% $2,979.00
TBT 100 65 80.91 +0.6500 up $65.00 up $1,591.00 up 24.48% $8,091.00
DIG 100 56 57.81 -0.37 down $37.00 up $181.00 up 3.23% $5,781.00
UCO 100 30 37.91 +0.51 up $51.00 up $791.00 up 26.37% $3,791.00
Total



up $15.00 up $2,672.00 up 14.87% $20,642.00
Next I will post the charts in play with comments.  This is the chart of GLL which is clearly in the sell zone. As you know I dumped it the other day with a nice profit.

 I replaced GLL with GDX which, in turn, has issued a buy signal.


Next is the chart of DDM. It too generated a sell signal so I dumped it with a nice profit. 

 The other side of the trade for DDM is DXD. The evidence is not clear enough to me to make a buy yet so I'll give it a little more time. 


The next chart is TBT. TBT is the short of US Treasurys. As the price of bonds fall and interest rates rise TBT goes up. It is looking a little parabolic here and if the economy tanks I would expect it to turn around and go the other way but as you know I have sworn off speculating and guessing.


 The next chart is DIG which is a proxy for the oil and gas industry.  As you can see it is looking like it will generate a sell signal soon


Last but not least is UCO which is the price of West Texas Intermediate oil. As you can see it also is parabolic and I would anticipate a turn in direction shortly.



 

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