Saturday, November 2, 2013

Good news, Bad news

This market is driving me absolutely insane. I love bull markets. I love bear markets. It's easy to make money in either one. This yoyo market is driving me crazy. Everything is going up and down in a range just broad enough to make the charts essentially worthless. This has happened before and thank God it usually doesn't last long so we should be close to taking a direction soon. For what it is worth I think the stock market is about to enter the mother of all bubbles. I think the Fed is pretty much locked into QE to infinity and rather than tapering down I would be willing to bet the next move will be to QE even more as the economy weakens. However that is, at this point, speculation so let's leave that aside for now and discuss where we are. My bet on shorting oil has hit a home run. We are up 16% in the short while since I placed the bet. So far so good. Chart below.


 On the other hand my bet the price of bonds would go up has gone nowhere. I am down .26% or $14.00 in money terms. It is still above the moving average line but I may think about dumping it by mid week if it doesn't turn around. Chart below.

 To add insult to injury the price of Gold has been declining and my bet shorting gold I got stopped out of recently has turned around and gone the other direction. I may drop my position in bonds and switch back to shorting gold if things keep moving in the same direction. Chart of DZZ, the short of gold below. As you can see by the crossing of the lines I got in, got out and now looks like I might get back in. I hate this market.


Model Portfolio update below. 


SCO 100 29.61 34.37 Up 1.03 Up $103.00 up $476.00 Up 16.08% $3,437.00
UBT 100 54.86 54.72 Down 1.34 Down $134.00 down $14.00 Down 0.26% $5,472.00
Total



Down $31.00 up $462.00 Up 5.47% $8,909.00

No comments:

Post a Comment