I feel like Bill Murray in the movie Groundhog Day. I am reliving past experiences over and over again. Back in 1994 I was absolutely convinced we were set up for a good sized correction and Alan Greenspan came to the rescue with a blizzard of Fed Funds and the correction was stopped dead in it's tracks and turned around and went up for several more years. Then in August of 1998 I was absolutely convinced we were in a bubble and set up for a massive correction. Sure enough, the Fed came to the rescue and pumped up the market for 2 more years. During that 2 years I sat on the sidelines while the market just kept going up and up and up until the final blow off in 2000. That time even the Fed couldn't prop it up anymore and we had a monster correction. Again, back in 2006 I felt we were in another bubble and the market was due to collapse. The Fed propped it up 2 more years before the final collapse in late 2008/early 2009. Once again I feel we are in a bubble. I have felt so for quite some time. Once again this is going to end badly. All of this leads up to one of the best market quotes of all time. It goes like this. " The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". So the short story is we know the end of the story is coming we just don't know how many chapters are between now and then. In the meantime I have one remaing bet in play and see no others to make that look promising. Somewhere out there I see the market testing the 2009 lows in the next couple of years. I see Gold breaking below 1000 in the next couple of years. I see all sorts of massive dislocations in our society in the next couple of years and possibly some major revisions to our current system. At the very least I see the rising star of a third party in this country as people become disgusted with both parties and declare a pox on both their houses. Future governments will have to learn to deal with governing by coalition with this third party which will be a good thing for the country. If we are lucky this will all come to pass peacefully. If not Homeland Security is geared up and ready to declare martial law and all bets are off. Model Portfolio is below with YTD stock trades below that.
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