Sunday, August 3, 2014

Detour, there's a muddy road ahead

For quite some time now I've been looking for a late summer/early fall correction. This just might be it. It's too soon to say with certainty but I'll lay out the case for it being so. First, my old standby since 1984, Janus High Yield Bond Fund. Janus has correctly signaled every downturn since I started using it as my canary in the mine. Chart of JAHYX below. Every time it has dropped below the 200 day moving average line a correction of 10% or greater has occurred in the stock market. 

 The next chart is of DDM which is the mirror of the Dow Jones. As you can see it has also issued a clear sell signal. 
 The short side of the Dow Jones is an ETF fund called DXD. It goes up when the Dow goes down. It has issued a clear buy signal. Chart below. 

 As you know I placed a bet on DXD mid week. I also placed a bet shorting crude oil. The fund that issued the sell signal for crude is called UCO. Chart below. 
 The fund that issued the buy signal for shorting crude oil is SCO. Chart below. 
 I have been whipsawed so many times recently that I'm still sceptical that this is the real thing but in keeping with my policy of not thinking and just following the charts I placed my bets. Updated Model Portfolio is below. 


DXD10026.2226.45$+23.01$+23.00+0.88%

SCO10026.3828.14$+21.00$+176.00+6.67%

Total


$ +44.01$ 199.00 3.78%

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